Le aziende internazionali si stanno preparando piani di emergenza per un possibile break-up della zona euro, secondo le interviste con decine di dirigenti di multinazionali.
Preoccupati del fatto che i leader politici europei non riescono a controllare la crisi del debito sovrano diffusione, dirigenti aziendali affermano di sentirsi obbligato a proteggere le loro aziende nei confronti di un incidente che non può più essere ignorate. Quando il cancelliere tedesco Angela Merkel e il presidente francese Nicolas Sarkozy ha sollevato la prospettiva di una uscita greca della zona euro all'inizio di questo mese, ha segnato la prima volta che alti funzionari europei avevano osato mettere in discussione la permanenza dei loro 13 anni sperimentare l'unione monetaria .Di piùSu questa storia
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"Abbiamo iniziato a pensare che cosa [un break-up] potrebbe essere simile," Andrew Morgan, presidente di Diageo Europe, ha dichiarato il Martedì. "Se si ottiene una specie molto più grande di ... cambiare intorno all'euro, allora siamo in una situazione completamente diversa. Con i paesi che escono dell'euro, hai massiccia svalutazione che rende i marchi importati molto, molto costoso. "
Preoccupazioni dirigenti 'stanno emergendo come ministri delle finanze della zona euro pesano opzioni sempre più radicale per affrontare la crisi del debito sovrano, compresa la possibilità di rifornire di prestiti della Banca centrale europea verso i paesi interessati attraverso il Fondo Monetario Internazionale.
I produttori di automobili, i gruppi di energia, beni di consumo le imprese e le altre multinazionali stanno prendendo cura di minimizzare i rischi mettendo riserve di liquidità in investimenti sicuri e controllare le spese non obbligatorie. Siemens, il gruppo di progettazione, ha anche stabilito una propria banca per depositare i fondi presso la Banca centrale europea.
Alcuni stanno esaminando consulenza di esperti sulle conseguenze legali di una divisione della zona euro per i contratti commerciali transfrontaliere e contratti di finanziamento. Al contrario, le imprese più piccole e medie imprese hanno fatto poche o nessuna preparazione finanziaria e legale.
"I partecipanti al mercato e, in misura crescente, le aziende reali dei prezzi in un break-up scenario", ha detto Jean Pisani-Ferry, direttore della sede a Bruxelles think-tank Bruegel. "E 'ancora difficile pensare l'impensabile, per non parlare di elaborare i dettagli di esso, ma qualsiasi giocatore razionale deve considerare la possibilità di esso."
Alcune aziende di portata globale dire un euro break-up sarebbe triste, ma gestibile. "Abbiamo fatto una prima analisi approssimativa sulle conseguenze della interruzione del l'euro come moneta portoghese", ha detto Jürgen Hoffmann Dieter, direttore finanziario di Volkswagen Autoeuropa, braccio portoghese della casa automobilistica tedesca. "La conclusione è che nel complesso l'impatto non sarebbe così negativo alla nostra società, come noi siamo principalmente un esportatore e appartengono a un gruppo in tutto il mondo."
Alcuni dirigenti francesi, italiane e spagnole dicono di avere i piani in atto per gravi turbolenze finanziarie ed economiche, ma non specificatamente per un euro break-up. Il rischio, ai loro occhi, è che la stabilità della regione potrebbe arrivare sotto la minaccia ancora maggiore se si è saputo che le aziende sono state contemplando il peggio.
Segnalazione aggiuntiva da Peter Wise a Lisbona, James Wilson a Francoforte e Alex Barker a Bruxelles
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International companies are preparing contingency plans for a possible break-up of the eurozone, according to interviews with dozens of multinational executives.
Concerned that Europe’s political leaders are failing to control the spreading sovereign debt crisis, business executives say they feel compelled to protect their companies against a crash that can no longer be wished away. When German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy raised the prospect of a Greek exit from the eurozone earlier this month, it marked the first time that senior European officials had dared to question the permanence of their 13-year-old experiment with monetary union.
“We’ve started thinking what [a break-up] might look like,” Andrew Morgan, president of Diageo Europe, said on Tuesday. “If you get some much bigger kind of ... change around the euro, then we are into a different situation altogether. With countries coming out of the euro, you’ve got massive devaluation that makes imported brands very, very expensive.”
Executives’ concerns are emerging as eurozone finance ministers weigh ever more radical options to tackle the sovereign debt crisis, including the possibility of funnelling European Central Bank loans to struggling countries via the International Monetary Fund.
Car manufacturers, energy groups, consumer goods firms and other multinationals are taking care to minimise risks by placing cash reserves in safe investments and controlling non-essential expenditure. Siemens, the engineering group, has even established its own bank in order to deposit funds with the European Central Bank.
Some are examining expert advice on the legal consequences of a eurozone split for cross-border commercial contracts and loan agreements. By contrast, most small and medium-sized firms have made few, if any financial and legal preparations.
“Market participants and, increasingly, real businesses are pricing in a break-up scenario,” said Jean Pisani-Ferry, director of the Brussels-based Bruegel think-tank. “It is still hard to think the unthinkable, let alone to work out the details of it, but any rational player has to consider the possibility of it.”
Some businesses with global reach say a euro break-up would be grim but manageable. “We have made a first rough analysis about the consequences of the discontinuation of the euro as the Portuguese currency,” said Jürgen Dieter Hoffmann, finance director at Volkswagen Autoeuropa, the German carmaker’s Portuguese arm. “The conclusion is that overall the impact would not be so negative to our company, as we are mainly an exporter and belong to a worldwide group.”
Some French, Italian and Spanish executives say they have plans in place for severe financial and economic turbulence, but not specifically for a euro break-up. The risk, in their eyes, is that the region’s stability might come under even greater threat if it became known that companies were contemplating the worst.
Additional reporting by Peter Wise in Lisbon, James Wilson in Frankfurt and Alex Barker in Brussels
Concerned that Europe’s political leaders are failing to control the spreading sovereign debt crisis, business executives say they feel compelled to protect their companies against a crash that can no longer be wished away. When German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy raised the prospect of a Greek exit from the eurozone earlier this month, it marked the first time that senior European officials had dared to question the permanence of their 13-year-old experiment with monetary union.
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On this topic
Executives’ concerns are emerging as eurozone finance ministers weigh ever more radical options to tackle the sovereign debt crisis, including the possibility of funnelling European Central Bank loans to struggling countries via the International Monetary Fund.
Car manufacturers, energy groups, consumer goods firms and other multinationals are taking care to minimise risks by placing cash reserves in safe investments and controlling non-essential expenditure. Siemens, the engineering group, has even established its own bank in order to deposit funds with the European Central Bank.
Some are examining expert advice on the legal consequences of a eurozone split for cross-border commercial contracts and loan agreements. By contrast, most small and medium-sized firms have made few, if any financial and legal preparations.
“Market participants and, increasingly, real businesses are pricing in a break-up scenario,” said Jean Pisani-Ferry, director of the Brussels-based Bruegel think-tank. “It is still hard to think the unthinkable, let alone to work out the details of it, but any rational player has to consider the possibility of it.”
Some businesses with global reach say a euro break-up would be grim but manageable. “We have made a first rough analysis about the consequences of the discontinuation of the euro as the Portuguese currency,” said Jürgen Dieter Hoffmann, finance director at Volkswagen Autoeuropa, the German carmaker’s Portuguese arm. “The conclusion is that overall the impact would not be so negative to our company, as we are mainly an exporter and belong to a worldwide group.”
Some French, Italian and Spanish executives say they have plans in place for severe financial and economic turbulence, but not specifically for a euro break-up. The risk, in their eyes, is that the region’s stability might come under even greater threat if it became known that companies were contemplating the worst.
Additional reporting by Peter Wise in Lisbon, James Wilson in Frankfurt and Alex Barker in Brussels
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